Dr. Frederic Schoenberg (UCLA stat)

Tittle: Model evaluation techniques for forecasts of wildfire activity and spread

Abstract: Some methods for evaluating point process models, wildfire indices, coverage process models, and other models for wildfire occurrence and spread will be discussed. Likelihood methods, deviance residuals, super-thinned residuals, and Voronoi residuals will be discussed. Advantages and disadvantages of the different methods will be reviewed.